Semivariance analysis in the Venezuelan plains under the context of climate change: a geostatistical view of future projections

Abstract

Estimating future changes in climate is extremely important for designing climate change adaptation measures. The objective of this research was to map the rainfall of the Venezuelan plains of a reference period and those projected for the 2050s by the GISS-E2-R, MPI-ESM-LR, NCARCCSM 4 and HadGEM2-AO models, under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Ordinary and Universal Kriging was used, analyzing the geostatistical information generated. The results showed the spatial dependence of the rainfall, both for the reference period and in the future. The magnitude of rainfall could increase in a very concentrated way or decrease spatially for the achieved ranges. The dry months would record generalized reductions in rainfall as opposed to the wet months. All models predict concentrated rainfall increases towards the western plains, in the states of Barinas and Apure, as well as to the north of the eastern plains.